Guide to Managing Seasonal Demand for Wholesalers

Seasonal demand in a wholesale business refers to fluctuations in product demand during a specific time of the year.

Seasonality can be attributed to holidays, weather changes, or cultural events, depending on the type of product you sell.

Fluctuations because of seasonality come a bit early for wholesalers than retailers, when retailers start piling up inventory to meet seasonal demand.

Of course, this applies to those who sell non-perishable products. If you sell fresh produce, the demand will remain high throughout the season instead of just at the beginning.

What is seasonal demand in supply chain?

Seasonal demand can choke supply chains.

For example, if a customer has placed an order right before the holiday season, shipping it to them may be more expensive or more difficult because shipping companies are overloaded with deliveries.

Similarly, you may have trouble sourcing inventory from the manufacturer for the same reasons.

Seasonal demand can also overwhelm warehouses and require you to come up with temporary storage solutions and temporary staff to manage incoming and outgoing goods.

Seasonal demand contributes a significant portion of your year-end revenue.

It’s where foresight, preparation, and execution determine whether you’re capitalising on peak opportunities or drowning in missed sales and excess inventory.

Let’s get more specific—here’s why seasonal demand is important:

• Optimise inventory levels: Stakes are high when it comes to inventory. Too little, and you’ll be scrambling to fulfil orders, losing trust and sales. Too much, and you’re stuck with storage headaches and clearance markdowns. Anticipating seasonal demand helps strike that balance.
• Helps maximise revenue: You probably know from experience when retailers will stock up for holidays, back-to-school rushes, or summer spikes. If you’re ready with the right products at the right time, you get a good chunk of revenue. Miss it? Your competitors will be happy to take that cash.
• Improve operational efficiency: Being prepared for a demand surge allows you to streamline everything from procurement to staffing. Plan for peak efficiency instead of reacting to chaos.

There are millions of seasonal products across industries. But here are examples of British seasonal produce and foods:

Spring seasonal products (March to May):

• Vegetables: Asparagus, wild garlic, radishes, new potatoes, spring onions
• Fruits: Rhubarb (early season)
• Seafood: Crab, mackerel, salmon

Summer seasonal products (June to August):

• Vegetables: Courgettes, peas, runner beans, broad beans, lettuce, tomatoes
• Fruits: Strawberries, raspberries, blackberries, gooseberries, cherries
• Seafood: Lobster, sardines, sea bass

Autumn seasonal products (September to November):

• Vegetables: Pumpkins, butternut squash, parsnips, kale, leeks, swedes
• Fruits: Apples, pears, plums, damsons, elderberries
• Seafood: Mussels, oysters, scallops

Winter seasonal products (December to February):

• Vegetables: Brussels sprouts, cabbage, turnips, carrots, Jerusalem artichokes
• Fruits: Oranges, clementines (imported but festive), stored apples, pears
• Seafood: Haddock, halibut, cod

Festive seasonal foods:

• Hot cross buns (spring)
• Christmas turkey and pudding (winter)

Seasonal demand pricing is when you adjust prices based on demand for your product. This helps maximize profits by tapping into a tightened supply in the market during peak season and encouraging sales when demand is low.

Airline and hotel pricing is the most common example of seasonal demand pricing. During peak travel seasons like summer holidays or Christmas, airlines and hotels raise their rates because there’s enough demand, a shorter supply, and the willingness of travellers to pay extra to be able to travel.

Retail and wholesale businesses experience seasonal demand differently because of their distinct positions in the supply chain.

The most common example is managing inventory for seasonal demand—wholesalers must plan for seasonal demand earlier than retailers because retailers will want to accumulate inventory before going into peak season.

Here are several other differences in seasonal demand in retail and wholesale:

Order size and frequency

Wholesalers place fewer but larger bulk orders to prepare for seasonal demand, while retailers place smaller, more frequent orders.

Pricing strategies

Wholesalers often offer discounted pricing for large orders and early purchases, while retailers adjust pricing dynamically during the season, offering promotions, discounts, or markups based on demand.

Marketing and sales strategies

Wholesalers focus on B2B marketing, targeting retailers with early order promotions, bulk deals, and reliable supply assurances. Retailers focus on B2C marketing, using seasonal advertisements, sales events, and in-store displays to attract consumers.

Risk factors

Wholesalers are overly reliant on retailers’ demand projections. For retailers, unsold inventory and the pressure of meeting consumer expectations during peak periods are major risks.

Seasonal demand has various implications for the UK food industry as we explain below.

The effects of seasonal demand on wholesale food purchasing

Seasonal demand has a major impact on wholesale food purchasing because it influences supply chains, pricing strategies, and inventory management. Here’s a quick overview of these effects:

• Fluctuations in supply and availability

Seasonal food items (like strawberries in summer and pumpkins in autumn) see demand spikes during their respective seasons. If you fail to align purchasing schedules with harvest cycles or imports to ensure availability.

• Price volatility

Seasonal demand creates price fluctuations—prices rise during peak demand when supply struggles to keep up and drop during harvest surplus or off-peak seasons.

• Storage and preservation challenges

High seasonal demand requires wholesalers to stockpile inventory, especially for perishable goods. Efficient storage solutions like refrigeration are critical to avoid spoilage.

• Pressure on forecasting and planning

Seasonal demand forces wholesalers to refine demand forecasting models to avoid understocking or overstocking. Wildly inaccurate forecasts lead to stockouts or wasted inventory. It’s best to invest in inventory management software if you’re a wholesaler.

The 3 main challenges of seasonal demand in food wholesale

Seasonal demand in food wholesale creates a delicate balancing act. Wholesalers must navigate three key challenges:

Excess inventory

Wholesalers often overstock products to meet anticipated demand, but this overestimation leads to unsold inventory. This is a problem, especially with perishable goods. Excess inventory leads to capital being tied up in unsellable products, higher storage costs (especially for temperature-sensitive foods), and decreased profitability as products may require markdowns to clear inventory.

Stockouts

Underestimating seasonal demand or supply chain disruptions can lead to stockouts. This translates to missed sales opportunities and strained relationships with clients. Retailers or food service providers may turn to competitors, leading to loss of long-term business as well as reputational damage.

Food waste

Seasonal demand amplifies the risk of food waste due to overstocking. The damaging effects include financial loss from unsellable goods, environmental harm from waste disposal, and ethical concerns about wasting food that could be redistributed.

Benefits of seasonal trends for wholesale food suppliers

When managed well, seasonal trends provide various advantages for wholesale food suppliers, such as:

• Reduced packaging and transportation costs

Local seasonal produce reduces the need for long-haul transportation and elaborate packaging. You can source food closer to the point of sale and cut down on logistics expenses. For example, strawberries sourced from local farms during the summer eliminate the need for air freight and extensive cold-chain logistics.

• Increased sales during peak periods

Seasonal demand creates predictable peaks. This allows you to plan inventory and marketing strategies to maximize revenue. For example, wholesalers supplying turkeys and stuffing ingredients during Christmas see a significant surge in sales as retailers stock up for the festive rush.

• Strong relationships with retailers

Consistently meeting seasonal demand helps you become a trusted partner for retailers. Reliable supply, competitive pricing, and proactive planning establish loyalty and strengthen partnerships. For example, delivering fresh pumpkins on time for Halloween when supply is unusually tight strengthens your relationship with supermarkets, securing future orders for other seasonal goods.

There are two precursors to forecasting seasonal demand.

First, you need information on the drivers of demand over the short and long term. Then, you need a consistent process to predict seasonal demand as accurately as possible.

Before we dive in, remember, it’s impossible to get an exact estimate of demand. The idea is to get as close as possible.

Understanding fluctuations in wholesale food demand

Fluctuations in wholesale food demand are driven by seasonal and cyclical factors. Recognizing the difference between both factors is critical to tailoring your strategies.

Here’s how each impacts your revenue and demand:

• Seasonal demand: This is what we’ve been discussing so far. Seasonal demand causes your sales to ebb and flow—weather, holidays, and cultural events that recur annually cause clear peaks and troughs in your revenue. It’s easier to time and plan for them than cyclical demand.
• Cyclical demand: Cyclical fluctuations occur over a longer time frame. Economic factors like booms, recessions, and industry growth trends drive demand over several years. These fluctuations are harder to predict because they’re largely driven by external factors. For example, a long-term economic slowdown might reduce demand for premium organic foods as consumers opt for budget-friendly options. Conversely, a booming economy could drive increased demand for specialty or luxury food products.

It’s important to factor in both when estimating demand.

For example, even during an economic downturn, the holiday season will drive up sales for turkeys but may be less so than during a high-growth economic environment.

Here’s a summary of the differences:

How to forecast seasonal demand?

Accurate forecasts are mission-critical for wholesalers. It’s your most powerful weapon to avoid over- or understocking. To forecast seasonal demand:

• Look at historical data: Historical data helps lay the groundwork for predicting future demand. Past sales patterns reveal peaks and troughs, while inventory data shows how much stock was needed and how much was left over. All the information you need should be available in sales reports. Speaking of which...
• Use advanced wholesale distribution software: Wholesale distribution software can auto-generate sales and various other reports. They offer extensive information about how demand has fluctuated in the past over specific time frames and also use that information to generate demand forecasts.
• Understand customer behaviour: Familiarize yourself with the end customers’ buying habits. Seasonal promotions, new product launches, and shifting preferences can heavily influence demand. For example, you adjust your inventory levels if you notice an increasing number of inquiries about vegan food options during the summer barbecue season.
• Stay on top of industry trends: Broader market trends like dietary fads, sustainability concerns, or new food regulations can heavily influence seasonal demand. Follow industry news, attend trade shows, engage in professional networks, and monitor competitors to identify emerging trends.
• Manage inventory: Seasonal demand forecasts are rarely 100% accurate. Maintaining a safety stock ensures you can handle unexpected spikes without waste and always have enough time to restock inventory if needed.